Taking Agent-Based Social Simulation to the Next Level Using Exascale Computing: Potential Use-Cases, Capacity Requirements and Threats

Exascale computing (10 18 FLOPS) officially arrived in 2022 when Oak Ridge's Frontier achieved that performance benchmark, and other countries seek their own exascale capabilities. High-end computing is typically used by the natural sciences, but empirical Agent-Based Social Simulation (ABSS) is a social science application. Empirical ABSS has a long history, but was prominent during the Covid crisis. In future crises, policy options could be evaluated within rapid policy design windows using exascale computing. We report on a group model-building exercise, co-constructing a causal loop model, to explore visions of the potential of exascale computing in ABSS, identifying potential use cases, capabilities, capacity requirements and threats.