Artificial Prediction Markets Present a Novel Opportunity for Human-AI Collaboration

Tatiana Chakravorti (The Pennsylvania State University), Vaibhav Singh (The Pennsylvania State University), Sarah Rajtmajer (The Pennsylvania State University), Michael McLaughlin (The Pennsylvania State University), Robert Fraleigh (The Pennsylvania State University), Christopher Griffin (The Pennsylvania State University), Anthony Kwasnica (The Pennsylvania State University), David Pennock (Rutgers University), C. Lee Giles (The Pennsylvania State University)

Abstract

Despite high-profile successes in the field of Artificial Intelligence, machine-driven technologies still suffer important limitations, particularly for complex tasks where creativity, planning, common sense, intuition, or learning from limited data is required. These limitations motivate effective methods for human-machine collaboration. Our work makes two primary contributions. We thoroughly experiment with an artificial prediction market model to understand the effects of market parameters on model performance for benchmark classification tasks. We then demonstrate, through simulation, the impact of exogenous agents in the market, where these exogenous agents represent primitive human behaviors.